PGA Championship First Round News & Notes

Golf Betting Lines

08/07/2008 - Bloomfield Hills Township, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite the fact they share a surname, there is no relation, whatsoever, between Jeev Milkha Singh and Vijay Singh.

"In the practice rounds I can hear a lot of people say, 'Oh, I think he's Vijay's son or he's Vijay's brother.' I heard that many times," admitted Jeev Milkha. "I just say I'm the other Singh."

On Thursday, he was the superior Singh.

He posted a two-under 69, while Vijay, a two-time champion and the winner of last week's WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, struggled to a six-over-par 76 on Thursday.

"My short game was sharp," said Jeev Milkha Singh. "Didn't drive the ball that good, but any time you shoot under par in a major championship, I think you got to take it and put it deep down in your pocket and I've done that today."

While most casual fans don't know, the younger Singh is one of the hottest players in the field. He has won two of his last four starts - one in Austria, one in Japan - and has done so in some substantial pain.

"I had been suffering with a little tendon running through the ankle on my right foot. It's got a lot of pain," acknowledged Singh. "I've been wearing a brace for the last four weeks. I did injure it just before the French Open, that was about seven, eight weeks ago. I've been getting a lot of physio done and it gets better, but you hit one of those shots out of the rough and I'm back to square one."

Singh complained that using the driver hurts a little more than other clubs. His doctor told him he needed four weeks rest. Singh told his doctor he couldn't do it.

"I decided if I'm going to play the PGA Championship I'm going to push myself through to this week and next week and after that I'm surely going to be taking two weeks off, maybe I'm going to extend it to four," he said.

One positive Singh can take from the ankle injury is that he hasn't been able to practice much at all. Remember, he's got two victories in the last seven weeks.

"I haven't played any practice rounds for the last seven weeks in the tournaments I've played and it's worked for me pretty good," said Singh, whose father was a world-class sprinter.

Since Singh played nine holes each of the last two days, things might not look great for him come Sunday.

NOT A FAN

"The Monster," the ominous nickname of the South Course at Oakland Hills, may have lost a fan.

"I was happy to break 80 after being seven-over after 12 holes," said Lee Westwood, who finished with a seven-over-par 77. "Standing on the 17th tee, I asked my caddie if he could hear the sea as well as I am sure I could hear my holiday calling. But I dug in there. I didn't do a lot wrong."

Westwood finished as a runner-up last week at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He went 4-0-1 in the 2004 Ryder Cup, the last big event staged at Oakland Hills.

But Westwood was not a happy camper after his terrible round.

"The fairways are narrow and unfortunately if you miss the semi (rough) by a foot you are worse off than if you miss by 20 yards, which you need to take different people's opinions as the whether that is fair," he said.

Next up was the PGA of America's setup at Oakland Hills versus the USGA's layout at Torrey Pines for the U.S. Open, an event, Westwood coincidentally finished one shot out of the Tiger Woods/Rocco Mediate playoff.

"Cut all the rough out. I think the U.S. Open was set up perfectly," said Westwood. "It rewards accuracy and penalizes you if you are off liner. I didn't see that today. I asked my partners if I was out of order and they said 'No, if you are slightly off line you are crucified'."

Moving on to the rough around the greens...

"In my opinion, it is too thick around the greens as well," he said. "It takes the skill away from chipping."

The par threes?

"If the wind gets up you won't get there. I hit a three-iron and Zach Johnson hit five-wood and on 17."

And in conclusion, Westwood felt like the set up took away from a great venue and a great championship.

"I sound as if I am moaning, which I am, but it is a great shame as it is a fantastic golf course, they are great greens and they are playable, but there is no need to play it as it is," said Westwood. "They are sucking the fun out of the Major Championships when you set it up like that."

* Kenny Perry, a pre-tournament favorite thanks to a three-win 2008 PGA Tour season, made it through the first round, but withdrew after his round. The Golf Channel reported Perry injured his eye earlier in the week and he eventually withdrew.

* Padraig Harrington, the winner of the last two British Opens, including last month's, started wonderfully with three consecutive birdies. Unfortunately, Harrington finished at one-over 71 in the opening round.

* Frank Esposito, Jr. leads the race for lowest club professional after his one-over 71 on Thursday. Esposito, playing in his first PGA Championship, works out of Brooklake Country Club in Florham, New Jersey.

* According to pga.com and Dave Shedloski, Paul Goydos, who lost the playoff to Sergio Garcia at The Players Championship, was the first player drug tested at a major championship. Goydos shot a four-over 74 in round one.

* There was a tie for easiest hole on Thursday. The two par-fives, Nos. 2 and 12, both played to an average of 4.7115. They were the only two holes that played to par or better.

* The hardest hole on Thursday was the 498-yard, par-four 18th. It played to an average of 4.6122. The 257-yard, par-three ninth also played a half-shot over par with an average of 3.5238.

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Betting the NFL preseason

Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."

When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules. 

The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.

The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.

“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”

The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.

“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”

The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.

“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”

Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.

“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."

So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?

“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.

Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.

Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.

Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.

“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.

Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.

The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.

“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.

Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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